The lack of anything from the DNC so far (outside cringe celebrity zooms) speaks volumes to me.
I am more and more inclined to believe that this is all about funding the DNC itself rather than trying to win an election.
Go look at the Kamala campaign site. There isn't even a policies page. Either they are planning to replace her at the convention (not very likely at this point) or the DNC has accepted the inevitable Trump victory and is killing two birds by dumping a largely unpopular candidate and filling the coffers...
I tend to think that the somewhat unlikely chance that Kamala wins is just a value add for the Dems at this point. They just needed a candidate that could speak complete sentences so that their down ballot candidates didn't have to embarrass themselves by promoting Biden's corpse.
Still lots of time though, we could have some surprises. I'd almost expect them at this point, the news cycle works faster with every passing year. There are good reasons why the betting markets don't have Trump as a blowout favorite anymore, and as DD often makes the point which I fully agree with... Trump is not a generally popular or well-liked guy. If Kamala can come off as a decent human being, a tall ask but it only needs to work for a few months, that could be enough. The bar is somewhere near the Earth's core at this point.
Nice to read an article by you, Keaton! I agree that the current MAGA strategy is a losing one, similar to what the Republicans did to Clinton with the Monica Lewinsky scandal; Ken Starr went too far, and it turned off a lot of people. Ultimately, however, our politicians don't seem to stand for anything, although they like to create a lot of atmospherics. Anyway, the two-party system continues to offer terrible candidates, which is why your channel's emphasis on post-duopoly is so important.
Thanks KW. Agree, in the main, with your analysis. Without doubt, the strategies you list, as an attempt to hold onto to their lead, would serve Trump and the Republicans best.
But when has Trump acted as expected? His virtue(?) is at least in part, due to that same unpredictability. I doubt whether it’s even possible for Trump to ‘stick to the script’.
I have a feeling (not good, believe me, not good) that Harris and the D’s have got this one stitched up. They have big tech, the establishment and social media undeniably on their side. This will continue until, or unless Harris is interrogated in some depth, regarding her, you know, actual policy position on immigration, foreign policy, cybersecurity etc. etc. etc.
I think a lot of people are underestimating the factors you listed, and while I'd stop myself short of saying Kamala has this stitched up, it's been very apparent since the switch that the Media Tech Industrial Swamp hadn't really even been participating in this campaign yet. Much in the way that hiding Biden in 2020 was apparently the right move, limiting our exposure to Kamala to a few months and throwing everything behind her is way more effective than many might think. If it's a close enough to a toss up come election time, I think the infamous "voter fraud organization" can get them over the edge. I just keep coming back to "is Kamala a worse candidate than Hillary or 2020 Biden?" And I can't help but think "no." Or it's at least close enough that it's not a tangible negative. Again underscoring the point that the discussion has to remain on the condition of the country under Democratic control for the last four years rather than a popularity contest because despite what the Trump sycophants think, Donny boy doesn't have an edge there against most generic politicians.
Perhaps Trump is just following orders. Why are we pretending like the election is for real? But, I don't see Kamala winning, nor any new DNC insider. If they planned this, we would have seen the promotion of such a candidate in the last months. Instead Newsom just looks more and more corrupt and insensitive, including his recent homeless cleaning exercise. You would think that he wouldn't brag about it, but like Kamala, they walk into their own failures 😂.
So since the DNC didn't seem to set up their next hype, like they did with Clinton and Obama and the fraud squad, it points to another possibility that sounds a lot more like the WWE than the old politics....
I don't usually do predictions but after seeing the rfk Jr press conference covered by the AP, I think we got a pro wrestling like story going on.
Kennedy, ridiculously rejected by the dnc (who somehow didn't even pump up a replacement for Biden and Kamala)
Gets the DNC nomination cause “gotta get rid of trump”
And he's going to be the release valve for their failed COVID scam and diminishing empire.
The irony is that they killed his uncle who was trying to bring peace, created more wars and struggle and now need someone like him because their bets on COVID making us into following zombies failed.
It's slick and helps bring back trust of government and the oligarchy… but in return for this, we get a lot of good reforms.
The US bipartisan criminal War party is financed by same Big Business donors.
DNC is led by intelligence agencies and organized crime.
GOP is led by religious lunatics and evangelical Zionists – the reason why Trump will likely lose 2024 election.
The genocide in Gaza is a USA genocide (Israeli Nazis are “just” the executioners) – the whole horrified world knows it. And – that each and all paid and bought member of Congress/Senate has an AIPAC babysitter.
Whatever one thinks of Alex Jones – he has prophetic grasp and vision, a la William Blake – here is the latest: “Evangelical Zionists Pushing the World Into Armageddon -- For many American Christians, it will always be Israel First.”
Are you FKM? How does no one get that Democrats must flood social media and msm with propaganda memes comparing a giggling prison-pusher with the Statue of Liberty, have Amazon remove books critical of Harris, push another ghost-written propaganda memoir like Obama's audacity of hope before that last brown-skinned puppet foreclosed 8 million families, and invaded Standing Rock with hardened mercenaries, while Trump just gets support being himself?
Very good analysis and I agree strongly with it. I basically said a lot of the same to my brother yesterday. It's really rattling the Trumpers in your comment sections though and they don't seem to understand the criticism (nor do a subset of people who seem to think that offering an analysis of electoral strategy is somehow endorsing Trump). Truth never matters in politics, and truth that requires a degree of memory or research matters even less. The only thing that Trump and his supporters' recent comments do is allow the media to reinforce existing narratives about sexism, racism, and The Donald just being an asshole in general. His base is already as motivated as possible, these attacks in combination with the switch to Kamala have worked to eliminate the apathy which was very strong amongst the Democrats when Biden was running. The 10% of the population which are politically neutral but still vote are naturally not that plugged into politics. They will never look into the merits of Kamala being a DEI hire or changing her race identification. They'll just see the orange man being mean.
Of courses, there is a lot of time for Trump to course correct and it's possible he's already leading by way more than estimated, given how historically he polls. But after running such a cautious campaign, he's already given the media a few more soundbites that will be added to the ones that have been following him for 8+ years. Certainly doesn't seem like they're working from a place of confidence, like when Biden was running. It'll be interesting to see the debate, provided it does actually happen.
Probably because she's a non candidate like Cornel West.
Recently they had the deadlines for signatures to get on the ballot in NY State. Jill Stein with the backing of the green party fell short. But Jose Vega and Diane Sare, relative nobodies with a tiny Indy party got much more than needed.
I'm also a bit tired of the greens after they went along with the COVID lockdowns, mandates etc. The black caucus in the party were against the violation of our rights, but ignored. Even Cornel West didn't seem to know about it....
The lack of anything from the DNC so far (outside cringe celebrity zooms) speaks volumes to me.
I am more and more inclined to believe that this is all about funding the DNC itself rather than trying to win an election.
Go look at the Kamala campaign site. There isn't even a policies page. Either they are planning to replace her at the convention (not very likely at this point) or the DNC has accepted the inevitable Trump victory and is killing two birds by dumping a largely unpopular candidate and filling the coffers...
I tend to think that the somewhat unlikely chance that Kamala wins is just a value add for the Dems at this point. They just needed a candidate that could speak complete sentences so that their down ballot candidates didn't have to embarrass themselves by promoting Biden's corpse.
Still lots of time though, we could have some surprises. I'd almost expect them at this point, the news cycle works faster with every passing year. There are good reasons why the betting markets don't have Trump as a blowout favorite anymore, and as DD often makes the point which I fully agree with... Trump is not a generally popular or well-liked guy. If Kamala can come off as a decent human being, a tall ask but it only needs to work for a few months, that could be enough. The bar is somewhere near the Earth's core at this point.
Nice to read an article by you, Keaton! I agree that the current MAGA strategy is a losing one, similar to what the Republicans did to Clinton with the Monica Lewinsky scandal; Ken Starr went too far, and it turned off a lot of people. Ultimately, however, our politicians don't seem to stand for anything, although they like to create a lot of atmospherics. Anyway, the two-party system continues to offer terrible candidates, which is why your channel's emphasis on post-duopoly is so important.
Thanks KW. Agree, in the main, with your analysis. Without doubt, the strategies you list, as an attempt to hold onto to their lead, would serve Trump and the Republicans best.
But when has Trump acted as expected? His virtue(?) is at least in part, due to that same unpredictability. I doubt whether it’s even possible for Trump to ‘stick to the script’.
I have a feeling (not good, believe me, not good) that Harris and the D’s have got this one stitched up. They have big tech, the establishment and social media undeniably on their side. This will continue until, or unless Harris is interrogated in some depth, regarding her, you know, actual policy position on immigration, foreign policy, cybersecurity etc. etc. etc.
Chances of this occurring? Zero…
Cheers from Aus 👋🏼
I think a lot of people are underestimating the factors you listed, and while I'd stop myself short of saying Kamala has this stitched up, it's been very apparent since the switch that the Media Tech Industrial Swamp hadn't really even been participating in this campaign yet. Much in the way that hiding Biden in 2020 was apparently the right move, limiting our exposure to Kamala to a few months and throwing everything behind her is way more effective than many might think. If it's a close enough to a toss up come election time, I think the infamous "voter fraud organization" can get them over the edge. I just keep coming back to "is Kamala a worse candidate than Hillary or 2020 Biden?" And I can't help but think "no." Or it's at least close enough that it's not a tangible negative. Again underscoring the point that the discussion has to remain on the condition of the country under Democratic control for the last four years rather than a popularity contest because despite what the Trump sycophants think, Donny boy doesn't have an edge there against most generic politicians.
Perhaps Trump is just following orders. Why are we pretending like the election is for real? But, I don't see Kamala winning, nor any new DNC insider. If they planned this, we would have seen the promotion of such a candidate in the last months. Instead Newsom just looks more and more corrupt and insensitive, including his recent homeless cleaning exercise. You would think that he wouldn't brag about it, but like Kamala, they walk into their own failures 😂.
So since the DNC didn't seem to set up their next hype, like they did with Clinton and Obama and the fraud squad, it points to another possibility that sounds a lot more like the WWE than the old politics....
https://substack.com/profile/10245494-rob-c137/note/c-62824421
I don't usually do predictions but after seeing the rfk Jr press conference covered by the AP, I think we got a pro wrestling like story going on.
Kennedy, ridiculously rejected by the dnc (who somehow didn't even pump up a replacement for Biden and Kamala)
Gets the DNC nomination cause “gotta get rid of trump”
And he's going to be the release valve for their failed COVID scam and diminishing empire.
The irony is that they killed his uncle who was trying to bring peace, created more wars and struggle and now need someone like him because their bets on COVID making us into following zombies failed.
It's slick and helps bring back trust of government and the oligarchy… but in return for this, we get a lot of good reforms.
I hear you -- and -- very likely he will !!
The US bipartisan criminal War party is financed by same Big Business donors.
DNC is led by intelligence agencies and organized crime.
GOP is led by religious lunatics and evangelical Zionists – the reason why Trump will likely lose 2024 election.
The genocide in Gaza is a USA genocide (Israeli Nazis are “just” the executioners) – the whole horrified world knows it. And – that each and all paid and bought member of Congress/Senate has an AIPAC babysitter.
Whatever one thinks of Alex Jones – he has prophetic grasp and vision, a la William Blake – here is the latest: “Evangelical Zionists Pushing the World Into Armageddon -- For many American Christians, it will always be Israel First.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/gregreese/p/evangelical-zionists-pushing-the?r=byea&utm_medium=ios
Are you FKM? How does no one get that Democrats must flood social media and msm with propaganda memes comparing a giggling prison-pusher with the Statue of Liberty, have Amazon remove books critical of Harris, push another ghost-written propaganda memoir like Obama's audacity of hope before that last brown-skinned puppet foreclosed 8 million families, and invaded Standing Rock with hardened mercenaries, while Trump just gets support being himself?
If Kamala wins, it’s gonna be nothing but identity politics for the foreseeable future.
Very good analysis and I agree strongly with it. I basically said a lot of the same to my brother yesterday. It's really rattling the Trumpers in your comment sections though and they don't seem to understand the criticism (nor do a subset of people who seem to think that offering an analysis of electoral strategy is somehow endorsing Trump). Truth never matters in politics, and truth that requires a degree of memory or research matters even less. The only thing that Trump and his supporters' recent comments do is allow the media to reinforce existing narratives about sexism, racism, and The Donald just being an asshole in general. His base is already as motivated as possible, these attacks in combination with the switch to Kamala have worked to eliminate the apathy which was very strong amongst the Democrats when Biden was running. The 10% of the population which are politically neutral but still vote are naturally not that plugged into politics. They will never look into the merits of Kamala being a DEI hire or changing her race identification. They'll just see the orange man being mean.
Of courses, there is a lot of time for Trump to course correct and it's possible he's already leading by way more than estimated, given how historically he polls. But after running such a cautious campaign, he's already given the media a few more soundbites that will be added to the ones that have been following him for 8+ years. Certainly doesn't seem like they're working from a place of confidence, like when Biden was running. It'll be interesting to see the debate, provided it does actually happen.
Dear Keaton, Please don’t quit the Dues for a job in campaign strategy, for which you would be eminently qualified, it’s too late. :-)
Postduopolists are so rare.
Frankly I don't give a damn about Repubs. or Dems.
Why is it that you don't mention Jill Stein or others?
Probably because she's a non candidate like Cornel West.
Recently they had the deadlines for signatures to get on the ballot in NY State. Jill Stein with the backing of the green party fell short. But Jose Vega and Diane Sare, relative nobodies with a tiny Indy party got much more than needed.
I'm also a bit tired of the greens after they went along with the COVID lockdowns, mandates etc. The black caucus in the party were against the violation of our rights, but ignored. Even Cornel West didn't seem to know about it....
PMC class politicians.
Id fshe's a non-candidate in your mind it's because she's not getting much media attention!